Managed Care

How regions differ in projected demand for primary care doctors in 2000

Each of the four major regions of the country will require more primary care physicians and fewer specialists in the year 2000 than it has today, according to a Sachs Group study that assumes that by that year everyone will be in HMOs. Although other estimates have suggested that even primary care doctors may be in oversupply in some parts of the country, the Sachs study saves that bearish forecast for specialists, of whom it says 37,000 fewer will be required by the century's turn. Visits to primary care doctors will increase 11 percent, obstetrics/gynecology visits will rise 8 percent and specialist visits will fall 17 percent, the study also suggested. (Non-percentage numbers shown are in thousands.)

SOURCE: THE SACHS GROUP, EVANSTON, ILL.

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