For all the hoopla created by passage of the Affordable Care Act (ACA), an analysis by Avalere Health of the ACA’s effect on employer-sponsored insurance (ESI) suggests a minimal effect overall. “That’s the bottom line,” says Miryam Frieder, a senior manager at Avalere Health. “But below the surface there are bigger changes, with employers dropping or offering new coverage and others shifting coverage into the exchanges.” The report, “The Affordable Care Act’s Impact on Employer-Sponsored Insurance: A Look at the Microsimulation Models and Other Analyses,” suggests that this market will remain “fairly stable, but particular subgroups could experience changes in coverage soon after 2014.”
In contrast, a recent and much-discussed report from McKinsey & Co. says that 30 percent of employers will “definitely or probably stop offering ESI in the years after 2014.”
The Avalere report predicts net changes in employer-sponsored insurance from –0.3 percent to +8.4 percent relative to the baseline number of people with coverage.
Sources: “The Affordable Care Act’s Impact on Employer-Sponsored Insurance: A Look at the Microsimulation Models and Other Analyses.” Avalere Health, 2011; “How U.S. Health Care Reform Will Affect Employee Benefits.” McKinsey & Co., 2011