Analyst Predicts Top 10 Drug Launches for 2017

Potential blockbusters are on the way

2016 was a slow year for new drug approvals, with the FDA greenlighting only 22 medications, but 2017 could shape up to be a year of blockbusters and market disrupters, according to EP Vantage’s 2017 market preview. In the report, analyst Amy Brown ranked the year’s rollouts by predicted 2022 sales.

Here is Brown’s top 10 for the remainder of the year with their predicted 2022 sales:

  • Ocrevus (ocrelizumab, Roche)––$4.1 billion. Indication: multiple sclerosis.
  • Dupixent (dupilumab, Sanofi/Regeneron)––$4.1 billion. Indication: atopic dermatitis.
  • Semaglutide (Novo Nordisk)––$2.2 billion. Indication: diabetes.
  • Durvalumab (AstraZeneca)––$1.9 billion. Indication: non–small-cell lung cancer.
  • Niraparib (Tesoro)––$1.9 billion. Indication: ovarian cancer.
  • Baricitinib (Lilly/Incyte)––$1.8 billion. Indication: rheumatoid arthritis.
  • Ribociclib (Novartis)––$1.6 billion. Indication: breast cancer.
  • Axicabtagene ciloleucel (Kite Pharma)––$1.4 billion. Indication: non-Hodgkin’s lymphoma
  • Ingrezza (valbenazene, Neurocrine)––$1.3 billion. Indication: tardive dyskinesia.
  • Spinraza (nusinersen, Biogen)––$1.3 billion. Indication: spinal muscular atrophy.

In addition, the following five products have key U.S. patients that will expire in 2017, making them vulnerable to lower-cost copycats:

  • Alimta (Lilly)
  • Cialis (Lilly)
  • Prezista (Johnson & Johnson)
  • Velcade (Takeda)
  • Viagra (Pfizer)

According to Brown, pricing will be the new “bogeyman” for the pharma industry in 2017. “The sustainability of a system where prices can be ramped year after year without justification is clearly questionable––both commercially and morally––and the sector will continue to be called out on this if examples abound,” she wrote.

Sources: FiercePharma; January 30, 2017; and EP Vantage 2017 Preview; December 2016.