Effect of biologics will be felt worldwide by 2017
Biologics will be about 20% of the world pharmaceutical market in three years, according to a study by the IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, part of IMS Health. That amounts to about $220 billion. “Development and production of biologics both branded and generic [biosimilars] is increasingly competitive, with a broad range of players, from small to large pharma companies,” says the study, “The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2017.”
Developed markets (United States, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, United Kingdom, Japan, Canada, and South Korea) will be dominated by brand-name pharmaceuticals in 2017. Meanwhile, generics will dominate emerging markets — China, Brazil, Russia, and India — accounting for 63% of the total share. “While spending on brands in [emerging] markets will continue to grow in absolute terms, their relative share will decline from 31% to 26% by 2017, reflecting more rapid expansion of access to generics compared to the uptake of innovative branded medicines.”
Spending on specialty pharmaceuticals is expected to increase by 30% in developed markets by 2017 and nearly 90% in emerging markets. “Innovative drug launches will be dominated by specialty medicines, reflecting a development pipeline that has an abundance of specialty products at all stages and particularly in the field of oncology.”
Specialty spending through 2017 (in billions)
Source: “The Global Use of Medicines: Outlook Through 2017,” IMS Institute for Healthcare Informatics, November 2013
Nonetheless, specialty drugs will be harder to come by in the emerging markets, “with access, particularly to the latest medications, a continuing issue for patients in these countries.”

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