HIV Infections Drop, but U.S. Falls Short of National Goals

Better prevention, care will help cut more infections, said researchers from Penn Medicine and Johns Hopkins

The number of new HIV infections and the transmission rate in the United States dropped by 11% and 17%, respectively, between 2010 and 2015, but fell short of the goals put forth by President Obama’s U.S. National HIV/AIDS Strategy (NHAS), researchers from the Perelman School of Medicine at the University of Pennsylvania and Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health reported this week in the journal AIDS and Behavior.

In 2010, the NHAS set a 25% reduction in HIV incidence and a 30% reduction in the transmission rate by 2015 as goals, in response to the stubbornly persistent infection incidence of approximately 50,000 per year.

“Even though we missed the goals by a sizable margin, it’s promising to see that we made important progress in reducing rates of HIV infection and transmission,” said Robert Bonacci, MPH, a medical student at the Perelman School of Medicine and the study’s lead author. “Scaling up HIV treatment and care alone was not enough. We need a simultaneous expansion of diagnostic and prevention services, paired with an intensified focus on communities disproportionately affected by HIV, particularly gay men, young people, transgender people, African American and Hispanic communities, and those who live in the southern U.S., to sufficiently impact the HIV epidemic.”

The researchers utilized U.S. Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) data on HIV prevalence and mortality for 2007 to 2012, and their own previously published incidence estimates for 2008 to 2012, along with mathematical modeling to evaluate whether the original NHAS incidence and transmission rate goals were achieved. Changes seen from 2010 through 2012 were extrapolated for the time period between 2013 through 2015.

From 2010 to 2015, the number of new infections decreased from 37,366 to 33,218, an 11.1% reduction, while the rate of transmissions decreased from 3.16 to 2.61, a 17.3% reduction, the researchers reported. Over the same period, estimated all-cause mortality decreased from 17,866 to 16,085, while HIV prevalence increased from 1,181,300 to 1,270,755 persons living with HIV.

In the years since the NHAS launched, funding levels for HIV programs in the U.S. have remained relatively flat, with the exception of an expansion of HIV treatment funding.

Connecting patients to care and keeping them on treatment continues to be a challenge. Putting patients on antiretroviral therapy (ART) can reduce HIV transmission by up to 96%.  Even so, only 37% of people living with HIV have been prescribed ART. Even worse, only 30% have achieved viral suppression, reports the CDC.

Perhaps most challenging is that disparities persist at each stage of the HIV care continuum. For certain populations, namely gay men, young people, transgender people, the African American and Hispanic communities, and those who live in the southern U.S., the gains of the last five years have not been distributed equally across all communities.  For gay and other men who have sex with men, the epidemic may even be worsening.

In July 2015, the NHAS was updated by the White House Office of National AIDS Policy, extending the updated strategy through 2020. It charts a course for collective action across the government and all sectors of society to get close to the strategy’s vision, according to

“After the release of the first National HIV/AIDS strategy, researchers cautioned that failure to expand diagnostic, prevention and care services to necessary levels would result in underachievement on the NHAS goals for 2015. Our analysis suggests that is just what happened,” said David Holtgrave, PhD, Chair of the Department of Health, Behavior, and Society at the Bloomberg School, and the study’s senior author.  “HIV prevention efforts must be reinvigorated in the NHAS’s second era.”

The study was supported by a grant from the Center of Excellence for Diversity in Health Education and Research at the University of Pennsylvania.

Source: University of Pennsylvania Health System(link is external); May 3, 2016.

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